OH-05, VA-01: NRCC Dropping Cash in Special Elections

When you’re as hard-pressed for cash as the NRCC is, I’m sure that the last thing you want to do is dump money that you don’t have into defending two deeply red districts in off-year special elections.  But the NRCC is doing just that — spending precious cash to defend the seats of the late Reps. Paul Gillmor (OH-05) and Jo Ann Davis (VA-01).

As a refresher, let’s take a look at how red these districts really are.  OH-05 has a PVI of R+10.1, and VA-01 sits at R+8.9.  To put it another way, these districts supported Bush by 21 and 22-point margins in 2004.  On any given day, these districts should be rock solid turf for the GOP.

But, as Roll Call reports, the NRCC is taking nothing for granted, making some independent expenditures against VA-01 Dem nominee and Iraq vet Phil Forgit on behalf of state Delegate Rob Wittman, the GOP candidate:

NRCC officials refused to comment about the committee’s strategy in the special election.

But the committee’s independent expenditure arm this week spent almost $8,000 to produce an ad attacking Forgit that hasn’t yet aired, bringing its total expenditures for anti-Forgit activity to almost $39,000. The NRCC also has spent about $3,100 on phone banks to help Wittman.

As Roll Call implies, that expenditure will balloon very shortly, as the NRCC buys the necessary ad time to put their Forgit attack ad on the air.

We can also expect some NRCC-funded fireworks in Ohio’s 5th district, where Republicans have spent over $9000 for the production of another ad (this one positive in tone, apparently) in support of Republican Bob Latta.  Latta, as you may recall, won a bruising primary against state Sen. Steve Buehrer earlier this month.

Is the NRCC really sweating over the prospect of losing these districts?  It would be a shocker for either of these races to end up in the Dem column, but perhaps Republicans are intent on playing it safe, because they can’t afford not to.

21 thoughts on “OH-05, VA-01: NRCC Dropping Cash in Special Elections”

  1. I don’t know if this is a good thing or a bad thing.  The good news is that Republicans will be forced to spend money that they can hardly afford to spend on seats that should be safe.  The bad news is that Republicans are now aware that these seats could be competitive and we probably wont be able to fly under the radar in them.  I would also watch the ads, because the NRCC produces some of the nastiest ads ever.  I would bet anybody on here a million dollars that the ad against Forgit will attack Nancy Pelosi and “the liberal Democrat majority”.  These guys are just too damn predictable.  

  2. but I just got used to not seeing political ads here in VA, now that the state elections are over.  It was a nice reprieve.  Guess I’ll just have to deal with it…

  3. GOP dropping cash like I drop MCs

    I make more commission than Edwin Meese

    Larry Craig‘s pants dropped like Henry Hyde

    His margin is narrow but his stance is wide

    Every two years I run up in DC

    And I vote more times than the elderly

    I got more rhymes than Domenici‘s got pajamas

    And I got much back like Oprah got Obama‘s

    Dropping bombs like your Rahm, I rock ’08

    Like Diamond Dogs, I’m your candidate

    Peace

  4. Of these two, does anyone have any inside information as to which one is more likely to be won by the democratic candidates, and how much more likely?

    Now taking al bets . . . (not literally)

  5. If the RCCC is spending some of its little stash on these two special elections, with the DCCC open its vaults to help our longshot candidates?

    I hope they will, but expect that they won’t. That would be a signal that the DCCC will be going along the same lines as in ’06, putting all its efforts into the most predictable races — which allows the Repubs to figure out exactly where the Dems will be attacking — while being worse than stingy on all the longshot races where the Repubs can be taken by surprise.

  6. Josh from the Wulsin Campaign asked me to come over to help work the streets the last weekend through the election; I think another Wulsin volunteer will be there also.  

    As always the Painter’s Union( my brothers) will be there.

    Any campaign can use feet on the ground, so if you are within a couple of hundred miles of northwest Ohio you should call the campaign to volunteer.

    Any recommendation of a good beer bar in that part of Ohio would be appreciated.

  7. Does anyone know how Democrats did in these two districs in the last statewide races?

    Tim Kaine and Jim Webb in VA-01

    Sherrod Brown and Ted Strickland in OH-05. I thought I read somewhere that Attorney General Marc Dann narrowly won OH-05 in 2006, but I can’t remember where I saw that or if it was true.  

  8. http://www.dccc.org/rapid_resp…

    The NRCC is now sending out press releases(whats the point?), attacking Weirauch for supporting healthcare for illegal immigrants and her support from the “extreme” Emily’s List.  Emily’s List is no more extreme than Grover Norquist’s Americans for Tax Reform.  

    I don’t know what they will attack Forgit on.  They can’t really attack him on immigration because he looks to be very conservative on it, as he supports Heath Shuler’s bill.  My guess is that they will say he would raise taxes.  

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